Stanley Cup Odds
Championship odds over 4,000 simulated runs, by conference. The bracket is one run; this is the distribution.
Eastern Conference
| Sd | Team | Cup % | Final | R2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | 14.3% | 25.3% | 71.5% |
| 2 |  OTT | 14.1% | 25.2% | 71.3% |
| 3 |  TB | 10.7% | 22.4% | 68.8% |
| 4 |  PIT | 3.5% | 9.0% | 54.3% |
| 5 |  BUF | 2.4% | 6.5% | 45.7% |
| 7 |  NJ | 1.5% | 4.2% | 28.7% |
| 6 |  BOS | 1.3% | 4.2% | 31.2% |
| 8 |  MTL | 1.1% | 3.3% | 28.5% |
Western Conference
| Sd | Team | Cup % | Final | R2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  COL | 23.4% | 37.3% | 77.2% |
| 2 |  VGK | 8.0% | 15.8% | 59.7% |
| 4 |  MIN | 7.0% | 14.2% | 57.8% |
| 3 |  UTAH | 3.8% | 9.0% | 50.6% |
| 6 |  LA | 3.2% | 7.7% | 49.4% |
| 5 |  ANA | 2.3% | 6.0% | 42.2% |
| 7 |  DAL | 2.3% | 6.4% | 40.4% |
| 8 |  EDM | 1.2% | 3.5% | 22.8% |
Monte Carlo (4000 runs) over the top-16 bracket; per-game prob = logistic of strength diff (0.58 projPts + 0.42 playoff readiness, z-scored); best-of-7 series, reseed each round.